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PHILIPPINES
IS NOT WORRIED THAT INDONESIA MIGHT INVADE THE PHILIPPINES NEXT YEAR!
WHEN the Brazilian government convenes to discuss next year's budget, it's unimaginable
that the Brazilian defense minister will rise from his seat, bang his fist on the table and shout, 'Just a minute!
What if we want to invade and conquer Uruguay? You didn't take that into account. We have to put aside $5
billion to finance this conquest!' Of course there are a few places where defense ministers still say such things,
and there are regions where the New Peace has failed to take root: I know this very well because I [YuNoHa]
live in one of these regions. But these are exceptions. There is no guarantee, of course, that the New Peace
wìll hold indefinitely. Just as nuclear weapons made the New Peace possible in the first place, so future techno-
logical developments might set the stage for new kinds of war. In particular, cyber warfare may destabilize the
world by giving even small countries & non-state actors the ability to fight superpowers effectively. When the
USA fought Iraq in 2003 it brought havoc to Baghdad & Mosul, but not a single bomb was dropped on Los An-
geles or Chicago! In the future, though, a country such as North Korea or Iran a.s.o. could use logic bombs to
to shut down the power in California, blow up refineries in Texas and cause trains to collide in Michigan ('logic
bombs' are malicious software codes planted in peacetime and operated at a distance. It is highly likely that
networks controlling vital infrastructure facilities in the USA and many other countries are already crammed
with such codes). However, we should not confuse ability with motivation. Though cyber warfare introduces
new means of destruction, it doesn't necessarily add new incentives to use them. Over the last 70 years
humankind has broken not only the Law of the Jungle, but also the Chekhov Law; Nuclear Missiles
are regularly on parade in for instance Stalin-Russia, Mao-China & Kim-Korea:
the gun that was always always on display but never fired.
Anton Chekhov famously said that a gun appearing
in the first act of a play wìll inevitably
be fired in the third [just as
their poisons, economics
AND fake
news!]?
IS NOT WORRIED THAT INDONESIA MIGHT INVADE THE PHILIPPINES NEXT YEAR!
WHEN the Brazilian government convenes to discuss next year's budget, it's unimaginable
that the Brazilian defense minister will rise from his seat, bang his fist on the table and shout, 'Just a minute!
What if we want to invade and conquer Uruguay? You didn't take that into account. We have to put aside $5
billion to finance this conquest!' Of course there are a few places where defense ministers still say such things,
and there are regions where the New Peace has failed to take root: I know this very well because I [YuNoHa]
live in one of these regions. But these are exceptions. There is no guarantee, of course, that the New Peace
wìll hold indefinitely. Just as nuclear weapons made the New Peace possible in the first place, so future techno-
logical developments might set the stage for new kinds of war. In particular, cyber warfare may destabilize the
world by giving even small countries & non-state actors the ability to fight superpowers effectively. When the
USA fought Iraq in 2003 it brought havoc to Baghdad & Mosul, but not a single bomb was dropped on Los An-
geles or Chicago! In the future, though, a country such as North Korea or Iran a.s.o. could use logic bombs to
to shut down the power in California, blow up refineries in Texas and cause trains to collide in Michigan ('logic
bombs' are malicious software codes planted in peacetime and operated at a distance. It is highly likely that
networks controlling vital infrastructure facilities in the USA and many other countries are already crammed
with such codes). However, we should not confuse ability with motivation. Though cyber warfare introduces
new means of destruction, it doesn't necessarily add new incentives to use them. Over the last 70 years
humankind has broken not only the Law of the Jungle, but also the Chekhov Law; Nuclear Missiles
are regularly on parade in for instance Stalin-Russia, Mao-China & Kim-Korea:
the gun that was always always on display but never fired.
Anton Chekhov famously said that a gun appearing
in the first act of a play wìll inevitably
be fired in the third [just as
their poisons, economics
AND fake
news!]?
03 mrt 2019 - bewerkt op 06 mrt 2019
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